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18.08.2011
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Риск экстремальной жары в России возрастет
Jara.jpg

Глобальное потепление практически никак не повлияло на приход экстремальной жары в европейскую Россию в июле-августе 2010 года, однако изменение климата к концу столетия приведет к десятикратному увеличению риска повторения таких событий, говорится в статье группы ученых Национального управления океанических и атмосферных исследований США (NOAA), принятой к публикации в журнале Geophysical Research Letters. В июле и до середины августа 2010 года европейская часть России испытала период аномальной жары. Температура, достигавшая 45 градусов Цельсия, била все рекорды, июль 2010 года в Москве оказался самым жарким месяцем за предыдущие 130 лет. Сильная жара сопровождалась небывалыми для западных регионов страны лесными и торфяными пожарами, смог накрыл многие города, в том числе Москву. В конце августа ученые – «климатические детективы» из группы NOAA Climate Attribution, также называемой CSI (Climate Scene Investigators) по аналогии с популярным американским сериалом «CSI: Crime Scene Investigation» («C.S.I.: Место преступления») заявили, что прямой связи между экстремальной жарой и глобальным потеплением нет. Теперь «детективы» под руководством Рэндолла Доула представили более полный и проработанный вариант своего отчета о причинах катастрофической жары в России. Исследовательская группа «прогоняла» результаты наблюдений за погодой через 22 различные компьютерные модели, чтобы выявить факторы, оказавшие наиболее существенное воздействие на метеорологическую катастрофу в России. В частности, использовали данные о температуре океана, состоянии арктического льда и концентрации углекислого газа, чтобы оценить их вклад в возникновение аномальной жары. «Знание о предшествующих климатических тенденциях и текущей концентрации парниковых газов не помогло бы нам предсказать экстремальную жару в России летом 2010 года. Ни температура океана, ни состояние льда в начале лета 2010 года не указывали на то, что произошло», – делает вывод Доул. Хотя вклад глобального потепления в аномальную жару не может быть полностью исключен, оно играет значительно меньшую роль, чем естественные метеорологические процессы, считает специалист. По словам Доула, работа его группы была схожа с попыткой расслышать тихий разговор за шумом ревущего реактивного двигателя. Им стоило большого труда вычленить очень слабые изменения, связанные с глобальным потеплением на фоне «рева» естественных колебаний. Исследователи предупреждают, что такие экстремальные события дают представление о будущем региона. Если концентрация парниковых газов продолжит расти, влияние глобального потепления в предстоящие десятилетия будет проявляться все более ясно на фоне естественных колебаний. «Похоже, что регионы России находятся в начале периода, в котором риск сильной жары будет быстро расти», – рассказал соавтор исследования Мартин Херлинг. Климатические модели, использованные в исследовании, указывают, что риск экстремальной жары в европейской части России будет расти. Если в 2010 году он составлял менее 1%, то к концу столетия он составит 10%. Непосредственной причиной аномальной жары, как ученые установили еще в августе, стал аномально устойчивый блокирующий антициклон – область высокого давления, которая не давала грозам и холодному воздуху с севера и запада проникнуть в центр России, что создало в регионе аномально жаркую и сухую погоду. Ранее американские климатологи подчеркивали, что такие летние блокировки не являются для Евразии чем-то нетипичным, поскольку географическое положение территории, находящейся как бы вниз по «течению» атлантического западного джета, устойчивого потока воздуха, делает ее уязвимой для подобных погодных явлений. Однако продолжительность блокировки – около 50 дней – оказалась уникальным событием. Автор другого исследования, принятого к печати Geophysical Research Letters, Мио Мацуэда из японского метеорологического агентства, с помощью компьютерного моделирования установил, что наступление первой фазы блокирующего антициклона можно было предсказать за девять дней. Авторы исследования отмечают, что сама по себе европейская Россия не испытывала значительного климатического потепления в течение летнего сезона в период с 1880 по 2009 годы, несмотря на то, что глобальная средняя температура значительно выросла. Такая «дыра в потеплении» не является чем-то необычным, поскольку потепление в разных районах Земли происходит неравномерно и в разных регионах может быть теплее или холоднее среднего. «Мы знаем, что изменение климата не происходит с одинаковой скоростью на всем земном шаре. Запад России – одна из частей мира, где не наблюдается значительного роста летних температур. Средний запад США – другое такое место», – говорит Херлинг.

передает РИА «Новости».



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Возврат к списку


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